Oslo. The race to decide the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize laureate is intensifying, yet most observers contend that former U.S. President Donald Trump is unlikely to secure the award. The Norwegian Nobel Committee will unveil its choice on October 9, a decision made against a backdrop of ongoing conflicts and strained diplomacy.

Why Trump’s Nomination Faces Steep Odds

Trump’s name has been put forward by officials from Cambodia, Israel and Pakistan, but experts monitoring the nomination process stress that his path to the prize is narrow, especially given the simmering tensions with Iran.

Last Year’s Award Still Resonates

The discussion surrounding Trump is coloured by the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize, which honoured Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado. After receiving the medal, Machado handed it to Trump, saying it symbolised her push for democratic change in Venezuela. The gesture sparked widespread commentary and continues to shape the narrative of this year’s deliberations.

Insider Views on Committee Calculations

Haakon Gjerloew, acting director of the Peace Research Institute Oslo, warns that the committee may consider how a laureate could become a target of Trump after the award. He suggests the board will weigh the broader repercussions of its decision, not merely the merits of a single nominee.

Historian Oeivind Stenersen adds that the committee faces growing pressure to address sweeping issues of international law, human rights, and the shifting global order.

Who Might Capture the Prize

Without an official shortlist, speculation has highlighted a mix of individuals and institutions:

  • Pope Francis, the first pontiff born in the United States, noted for promoting dialogue, migration relief and broader humanitarian causes.
  • The International Criminal Court (ICC) and the International Court of Justice (ICJ), both pivotal in upholding global justice.
  • UN special rapporteur Francesca Albanese, recognised for her work on human‑rights advocacy.
  • Various NGOs and humanitarian groups operating in conflict zones.

The ISS as an Unlikely Contender

In an unconventional twist, some commentators have floated the International Space Station (ISS) as a symbol of worldwide cooperation. The orbiting laboratory brings together the United States, Russia, Europe, Japan and Canada, showcasing sustained partnership despite terrestrial tensions.

Numbers, Nominations, and the Countdown

The Nobel Committee received 287 nominations for the 2026 Peace Prize, spanning individuals, NGOs and intergovernmental bodies. The identities of current nominees remain confidential, so speculation will continue until the official announcement on October 9 in Oslo.